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"Should the whole frame of nature break,
he, in ruin and confusion hurled,
unconcerned, would hear the
mighty crack,
and stand secure amidst a falling world."
Joseph
Addison
"The world we live in today is much more a
man-made, or artificial, world than it is a natural world. Almost every element
in current environments shows evidence of human artice." -
Herbert A. Simon |
Earth like planets are very
rare.
Human activity has
significantly altered the Earth's atmosphere.
Andrew Marshall, the
director of the Office of Net Assessment, the father of 'Star
Wars' and the Pentagon graybeard
expert on future strategic threats, was commissioned by
Richard Milhous Nixon:
"to weigh the military balance in
specific areas, determine
important long term trends,
to highlight existing or
emergent problem areas, to identify important opportunities
to improve future American position in the
continuing global
military-economic-political competition."
A report commissioned by
Andrew Marshall describes disasters that would occur if the climate shifted
abruptly as happened some 12,000 years ago.
This is the climate model
used in the movie The Day After Tomorrow.
According to this climate scenario, most of Holland and
Bangladesh would be submerged by violent storms and
rising oceans.
Northern Europe may freeze due to disruptions in the
Gulf Stream currents.
Millions of
environmental refugees would gather at the frontiers of the developed world,
driven by wars, famines, and floods and yearn for the EU.
Climate change and the Syrian civil war revisited
Climate change 'will create world's biggest refugee
crisis'
Nuclear
conflict, continental droughts,
and widespread rioting may
erupt.
The report paints an image of America as a gated
community insulating itself from an Earth it helped forge,
isolated and despised by its angry
neighbors.
Climate change is an
American national security
concern.
Americans
need to take seriously the implications of global warming.
"Anyone who thinks the human race does not have a
powerful impact on the environment and climate definitely has their
head in the sand." -
Bill Patzert
"Recent years have shown that shifts in rainfall
can bring down governments.
The African Sahel provides a dramatic and
poignant demonstration.
The deadly carnage in
Darfur, Sudan, for example, which is almost always discussed
in political and military terms, has roots in an ecological crisis directly
arising from climate shocks." - Jeffrey Sachs
"The observed increase in greenhouse gas
levels, due to production,
is the only explanation we can find to account for what has happened to our
world.
We've dusted for fingerprints. It's us." - Katharine Hayhoe
& Andrew Farley
"Climate change is happening now, and it's actually
affecting our lives.
It's not just happening in the Arctic regions;
it's beginning to show up in our own backyards." - Thomas R. Karl, director of
the National Climatic Data Center at the NOAA, June 16,
2009
1896 Svante Arrhenius, a Swedish physical chemist and
future Nobel laureate, publishes his paper on the greenhouse effect.
Arrhenius' documents experimental verification of the ability of what
was called 'carbonic acid' – carbon dioxide – to trap heat near
Earth's surface.
1908 Svante Arrhenius pens
Worlds in the Making.
Svante Arrhenius predicts human emission
of CO² will be strong enough to prevent the world from entering a new ice
age, and that a warmer earth will be needed to feed the rapidly increasing
population.
Unfortunately we now know that the increase in heat and
carbon dioxide actually retard plant growth.
High
carbon dioxide levels can retard plant growth
Downward Regulation of Photosynthesis and Growth at High CO2
Levels
Svante Arrhenius' greenhouse law:
If the quantity of
carbonic acid increases in
geometric progression, the augmentation of the temperature will increase nearly
in arithmetic progression - based on the Stefan-Boltzmann
observations.
The United Nations sponsored
intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change has reconfirmed the basic
accuracy of Svante Arrhenius' calculations.
Prior to the extensive
burning of fossil fuels the concentration of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere
is about 280 parts per million.
After WWII readings of CO² showed
a 1-part-per-million annual increase.
Average readings at the 11,141
foot Mauna Loa Observatory, where carbon dioxide density peaks each
northern
winter:
2003: 376 parts per million
March 2004: 379 ppm
Year-to-year increase of about 3 parts per million.
2008: 385 ppm
On May 9, 2013
the daily mean concentration of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere surpasses 400
parts per million.
August 2016: 402.25 ppm
June 23, 2017: 408.35
ppm
June 23, 2018: 410.76 ppm
May 2019: 414.7 ppm
April
11, 2020: 416.44 ppm
April 11, 2021: 418.96 ppm
The fossil fuel industry feeds a
propaganda machine that attempts to convince
the victims of devastated
planetary ecosystems that their senses deceive them.
"I was shot by
Nigerian soldiers paid for by
Chevron Nigeria Ltd.
I was standing on a drilling platform in
the Niger Delta run by Chevron Nigeria Ltd.
More than
100 unarmed villagers joined me there to
protest the loss of our fish, our clean water and our trees because of
Chevron's petroleum production activities in our region, and to protest the
loss of our traditional ways of supporting ourselves as a result of these
activities.
Chevron Nigeria Ltd
paid for, transported and supervised the Nigerian military and police forces
that responded to our protests.
They opened fire on us without warning!
The
villagers who live near these petroleum facilities are desperately poor.
Most of our villages have
no electricity, many are reachable only by boat.
These communities
survive on subsistence fishing and farming that has been destroyed by Chevron's
dredging and drilling.
We villagers seek basic environmental
reparations and support, like hospitals, scholarships and jobs to replace the
fishing and farming
we've lost.
In all of 2007, Chevron spent less than one day's profits
providing support to the communities it destroys in
Africa." - Larry
Bowoto
1981 Fossil fuel industry recognizes burning fossil fuel is
causing global warming.
2003 The
hottest summer in Europe in 500 years.
More than 19,000 deaths attributed to the heat.
Record
temperatures were recorded in most of the major cities of Europe with many
readings of more than 100°.
"When you consider Europe as a whole,
it was by far the hottest summer," said Jurg Luterbacher, climatologist
University of Bern, Switzerland
Jurg said increased temperatures
were not limited to summer in Europe; winters also have been warmer than the
historical record.
In the study, Luterbacher and his team analyzed the
temperature history of Europe starting in 1500 to the present.
For the
earliest part of the half millennium, the temperatures are estimates based on
proxy measures, such as tree rings and
soil cores.
After about 1750,
he said, instrumented readings became generally available throughout
Europe.
2005
Philip Cooney, petroleum industry lobbyist who edits government reports on
climate change by questioning the
science and significance of studies and projections as chief of staff for
Bush Council on
Environmental Quality, returns to the private sector as an employee of
ExxonMobil.
2007 Polluters pump at least 24,126,416,000
metric tons of carbon dioxide (CO2) into the environment.
The US and
its territories were responsible for 5.8 billion metric tons, more than China
(3.3 billion), Russia (1.4
billion) and India (1.2 billion)
combined
2008 The petroleum and coal industries
spend $427 million in the first six months in
political contributions,
lobbying expenditures and
advertising to oppose climate
action.
2009 Center for Public Integrity
estimates that "more than 770 companies and interest groups hired an estimated
2,340 lobbyists to influence federal
policy on climate change in the past year."
The Center for
Public Integrity calculates that the
climate change-driven boom has
resulted in "an increase of more than 300% in the number of lobbyists on
climate change in just five years, and means that Washington boasts more than
four climate lobbyists for every member of Congress. 02/25/09
"Scientists have
systematically underestimated just how delicate the balance of the planet's
physical systems really is.
That rise of 1° has seriously
perturbed hydrological cycles: the warm air holds more water vapor than cold
air does, both droughts and floods are increasing dramatically.
Coral reefs are dying, and so are
vast stretches of
forest.
None of that is going to stop, even if we do everything
right from here on out.
Given the time
lag between when we emit carbon and when the air heats up, we're already
guaranteed at least another 1° of warming.
The only question now is
whether we're going to hold off catastrophe.
It won't be easy, because
the scientific consensus calls for roughly 5° more warming this century
unless we do just about everything right.
If our behavior up until now
is any indication, we won't." - Bill
McKibben
FBI kept files on peaceful climate change
protesters
Tracking Of Environmental Activists "Contemptible"
Agents Track Climate Activists as Part of 'Domestic Terrorism
Case'
An ice shelf core about two miles
long - drilled in Antarctica - shows that at no time in the last 650,000 years
have levels of the greenhouse gases carbon dioxide and methane been as high as
they are today.
The research, published in a 2005 issue of the journal
Science, describes the content of the greenhouse gases within the core
and shows that carbon dioxide levels today are 27% higher than they have been
at any time in the last 650,000 years and levels of methane are 130% higher.
"Anyone counting on an ice age to head off global warming or hoping to
justify human greenhouse gas emissions to head off the next ice age, will find
no comfort in the ice core record." - Richard Alley, Penn State University
geophysicist and ice core analysis expert
2002
Larsen B ice shelf in Antarctic breaks up.
Antarctic glaciers in the
region are flowing at up to eight times their previous flow rate.
The
breakup of the Larsen B ice shelf left the glacial flow into Antarctica's
Wendell Sea unimpeded.
2005 About 288,000 square
miles of perennial Arctic ice shelf is lost between September 2004 and
September 2005 - 14% overall and 50% of the east Arctic Ocean.
The
reduction of sea ice is making it more difficult for the polar bear to survive
as polar bears are dependent on the seals for sustenance and use sea ice as a
platform from which to hunt the seals.
2007
Northwest Passage becomes navigable.
National Snow and Ice Data
Center reports satellite
measurements shows a reduction of the sea ice to less than 2.02 million
miles - down 386,100 square miles from the previous low in September 2005.
At current rates Mark Serreze, a senior research scientist, predicts
the sea ice could be gone as soon as 2030.
2008
Northwest and Northeast passages are open.
Early computer models
predict this would happen late in the 21st century.
Arctic white ice
reflects 80% of incoming solar
radiation back into space; blue
water absorbs 80% of that sunshine.
International shipping
corporations order 152 reinforced hull ships to ply the Northwest Passage
costing $100 million per ship - a $15 billion investment.
160 square
mile ice chunk breaks off the Wilkins Ice Shelf in Antarctica.
Once-stable Antarctic glaciers have suddenly started
melting
Antarctic Ice Melt
2009
Two 12,700-ton ships, the Beluga Fraternity and Beluga Foresight,
accompanied by Russian nuclear icebreakers encounter only scattered ice floes
in the first trip through the Arctic Ocean from
Korea to Rotterdam by commercial
vessels.
The passage around the northernmost tip of Siberia, the
Vilkitsky Strait, ice covered about half the sea.
"It is global
warming that enabled us to think about using that route." - Verena Beckhusen,
Beluga Group spokeswoman
From Yokohama, Japan, to Rotterdam via
the Northeast Passage, Europe-Asia Trans Siberian Passage or Northern Sea Route
is about 4,450 miles shorter than the
Suez Canal route.
"We are all very proud and delighted to be
the first shipping
corporation which has successfully transited the legendary Northeast
Passage and delivered the sensitive cargo safely through this extraordinarily
demanding sea area." - Neils Stolberg, Beluga Group president, September
10, 2009
The ice loss is particularly dramatic in Greenland.
Two
decades ago, the Greenland ice sheet was in approximate balance - ice loss at
the edges as glaciers calved into the ocean was balanced by ice gain in the
interior from increased snowfall.
One decade ago, the ice loss at the
edges had increased and Greenland was losing around 100 billion tons of ice
every year.
Currently, this ice loss has increased to around 300
billion tons of ice per year.
The last time CO2 was this high was during
the Pliocene.
Sea levels were around 25 metres higher than current sea
level (Dwyer 2008).
Arctic temperatures were 11 to 16°C warmer
(Csank 2011).
2017 A 5,800-square kilometre
(2,200-square mile) section of Larsen C (ice shelf), larger than the State of
Delaware with twice the volume as Lake Erie about 350 metres (1,100 feet)
thick, breaks away.
The Larsen C ice shelf looses more than 12% of its
total surface area.
As northern permafrost
thaws huge amounts of methane long trapped below the ice begin to escape into
the atmosphere.
Methane is an even more potent greenhouse gas than
carbon dioxide.
CH4 molar mass = 16.043
g·mol-1 Tetrahedron;
Methane concentration has
increased by about 150% since 1750.
CO2 molar mass = 44.009
g·mol-1 Trigonal;
Carbon dioxide has increased 43%
since the beginning of industrialization.
6,000 or more walruses
congregated on Alaska's shore in the fall of 2007.
3,500 walruses were
near Icy Cape on the Chukchi Sea, some 140 miles southwest of Barrow in the
fall of 2009.
Federal wildlife researchers from the US Geological
Survey spotted up to 200 walrus calf carcasses near Icy Cape.
"This is
actually all new. They did this in 2007, and it's a result of the sea ice
retreating off the continental shelf." - Chad Jay, a US Geological Survey
walrus researcher
The US Fish and Wildlife Service announced that a
petition presented by the Center for Biological Diversity provided substantial
information that listing the walrus as threatened or endangered is
warranted.
2020
The Outlook Is Worse Than Scientists Grasp
Academics
tend to specialise in one discipline.
In many cases unfamiliar with the
complex system in which planetary-scale problems — and their potential
solutions — exist.
The current state of the global environment is:
A halving of vegetation biomass since the monocultural revolution began
around 11,000 years ago;
Humans have altered over two-thirds of
Earth’s land surface;
1,300 documented species extinctions in the
past 500 years;
Population sizes of species have declined by more than
two-thirds over the last 50 years, suggesting extinctions are
imminent;
One million plant and animal species globally threatened with
extinction.
The combined mass of wild mammals today is less than
one-quarter the mass before humans started colonising the planet.
Insects are disappearing rapidly in many regions;
85% of the
global wetland area lost in 300 years;
more than 65% of the oceans
compromised to some extent by humans;
a halving of live coral cover on reefs
in less than 200 years;
a decrease in seagrass extent by 10% per decade
over the last century;
about 40% of kelp forests have declined in
abundance;
number of large predatory fishes is 10% of a century ago.
Underestimating the Challenges of Avoiding a Ghastly
Future
2021 An iceberg ~ 490 square miles
breaks off the Brunt Ice Shelf.
Iceberg Bigger Than New York City Breaks Off Antarctica Ice
Shelf
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