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1781 Marquis de
Condorcet, Marie-Jean Antoine Nicholas de Caritat, publishes Reflections on
Negro Slavery in which he denounces
slavery.
1785 Condorcet published Essay on
the Application of Analysis to the Probability of Majority
Decisions.
Condorcet’s jury theorem paints an optimistic
picture of the wisdom of crowds, concluding majority outcomes grow more
reliable as votes are added.
Condorcet’s jury theorem assumes
jurors are 'empty vessels' with the same probability of being right - same
knowledge and rational assumptions.
Most extant proofs of this theorem
implicitly make the behavioral assumption that individuals vote
“sincerely” in collective decision making.
Condorcet paradox
occurs in an election when: within a given set of candidates, no one candidate
is preferred by at least as many voters as all the other candidates in the set
when looking at their pairwise matchups.
It essentially means that
within that set of candidates, no matter which candidate you pick, more voters
always prefer some other candidate in the set.
Paradoxical as
majority wishes can be in conflict
with each other.
The paradox was independently
discovered by Lewis Carroll.
Condorcet
paradox
Condorcet method is an election method that elects the
candidate who wins a majority of the vote in every head-to-head election
against each of the other candidates, that is, a candidate preferred by more
voters than any others.
1786 Condorcet marries
Sophie de Grouchy, twenty years his junior reckoned as one of the most
beautiful women of the day.
She became an accomplished salon hostess as
Madame de Condorcet, and also an accomplished translator of Thomas Paine and
Adam Smith.
1790 Marquis de Condorcet pens On
the Admission of Women to the Rights of Citizenship.
Women did not
get the vote during the French Revolution, but they did benefit from many of
the changes that occurred in matters of marriage, divorce, inheritance and the
legal status of unwed mothers and their children.
April 1793 Maximilien
Robespierre creates the Committee of Public
Safety.
Charged with protecting the republic against its
foreign and domestic
enemies the committee's power grew to dictatorial heights as it organized
the Reign of
Terror.
Cult of Reason, first
state-sponsored atheistic
religion intended as a
replacement for Catholicism, holds sway.
March 29,
1794 Marquis de Condorcet is found dead in his cell.
June 8, 1794
Robespierre declares 8th of June 1794 to be 20 Prairial Year II on
a man-made mountain in the
Champ de
Mars.
With the new French Republican Calendar
future holidays are to be
held every tenth day; days of rest.
Robespierre, creator of the theistic
Cult of the Supreme
Being, intends it to become the new State religion.
Primary
principles of this State
Cult are belief in a Supreme
Being and immortality of the human soul.
Under the Law of 22
Prairial punishment for all crimes is death until the death of Robespierre on
July 27, 1794.
The Tree Unaware of its
State
A man cut down a tree
one day.
A Sufi who saw this taking place said:
'Look at this
fresh branch, full of
sap,
it does
not know it has been cut off.
Ignorant of the damage it has
suffered
it will come
to know in due time.
Meanwhile you cannot reason
with it.'
This severance,
this
ignorance,
these
are the state of man.
Farid al-Din
Attar of Nishapur
"Understanding
the nature of macrosocial
pathological phenomena permits us to find
a healthy attitude and
perspective, assisting us in
protecting our minds
from being poisoned by
their disease and the
influence of
propaganda.
The unceasing
counter-propaganda resorted to by some countries with a normal human social
system could easily be superseded by
straightforward information of a
scientific and popular scientific nature on
the subject.
The bottom line is that we can only conquer this
huge, contagious social cancer if
we comprehend its
essence." - Andrew M.
Lobaczewski
"In the course of his
epoch-making experiments on the
conditioned reflex,
Ivan Pavlov
observed that, when subjected to
prolonged physical or psychic
stress, laboratory animals exhibit
all the symptoms of a
nervous breakdown.
Refusing to cope any longer
with an intolerable situation, the brain goes on strike and either stops
working altogether (dog loses consciousness), or resorts to slowdowns and
sabotage (dog exhibts symptoms of
hysteria).
Some animals are more
resistant to stress than others.
Dogs possessing what
Pavlov called a
"strong excitatory" constitution break
down much more quickly than dogs of a merely "lively" temperament (as opposed
to a choleric or agitated).
Similarly
"weak inhibitory" dogs reach
the end of their tether much sooner than do
"calm imperturbable"
dogs.
Even the
most stoical dog is unable to resist indefinitely.
If the stress to
which he is subjected is intense or prolonged,
he will end by breaking down as
abjectly as the weakest of his kind." -
Aldous Huxley
Evil people actively rather than passively
avoid extending themselves.
They will take any action in their
power to protect their own laziness.
They will actually destroy others in
this cause.
They will even kill to escape
the pain of their own spiritual growth.
Threatened by the spiritual
health of those around them, they seek by all manner of means to
crush and demolish that
spiritual health.
THE REASONING POWER OF CROWDS
Gustave Le Bon,
The Crowd: A Study of the Popular Mind
It cannot absolutely be said that
crowds do not reason and are
not to be influenced by reasoning.
However,
the arguments they employ and
those which are capable of influencing them are, from a logical point of view,
of such an inferior kind that it is
only by way of analogy
that they can be described as reasoning.
The inferior reasoning of
crowds is based, just as is reasoning of a high order, on the
association of
ideas, but between the ideas associated by crowds there are
only apparent bonds of analogy or
succession.
The
mode of reasoning of crowds resembles that of the Esquimaux who, knowing from
experience that ice, a transparent body, melts in the mouth, concludes that
glass, also a transparent body, should also melt in the mouth; or that of the
savage who imagines eating the heart of a courageous foe acquires his bravery;
or of the workman who, having been exploited by an employer, immediately
concludes that all employers exploit their men.
The characteristics of the reasoning
of crowds are
the association
of dissimilar things possessing a merely apparent connection between each
other, and the immediate generalisation
of particular cases.
It is arguments of this kind that are always
presented to crowds by those
who know how to manage them.
They are the only arguments by which
crowds are to be influenced.
A chain of
logical argumentation is totally incomprehensible to crowds, and
for this reason it is
permissible to say that they do not reason or that
they reason falsely and are not to be
influenced by reasoning.
Astonishment is felt at times on
reading certain speeches at
their weakness, and yet they had
an enormous influence on the
crowds which listened to them, but it is forgotten that they were intended
to persuade collectivities and not to be read by
philosophers.
An orator
in intimate communication can evoke images to seduce a crowd.
If he is successful his
object has been attained, and twenty volumes of harangues -- always the outcome
of reflection -- are not worth the few phrases which appealed to the brains it
was required to
convince.
It would be superfluous to add that the
powerlessness of crowds to
reason aright prevents them displaying any trace of the critical spirit,
prevents them, that is, from being capable of discerning truth
from error, or of forming a
precise judgement on any matter.
Judgments accepted by crowds
are merely judgements forced upon them and never judgements adopted after
discussion.
In regard to this matter the individuals who do not rise
above the level of a crowd are numerous.
The ease with which certain
opinions obtain general acceptance results more especially from the
impossibility experienced by the majority of men of forming an opinion peculiar
to themselves and based on reasoning of their own. |
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